“Consumer and business confidence is poor and the overall economy has yet to pull out of the downturn that began in 2008, which both add to the general sense of anxiety and uncertainty in the real estate market,” says AIA chief economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Spending on renovations of existing buildings has remained strong, but the depressed demand for new construction isn’t likely to improve until next year, led by the commercial sector: offices, retail and hotels.”
Baker added, “Steel, copper and aluminum have all increased 10 percent or more in the past year, offsetting declines for lumber and concrete products. Rising energy costs have also been central to the unusual volatility in building material prices.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts
|
2011
|
2012
|
|
Overall nonresidential
|
-5.6%
|
6.4%
|
|
|
||
|
Commercial / industrial
|
-6.5%
|
11.8%
|
|
Hotels
|
-17.9%
|
18.0%
|
|
Industrial
|
-15.8
|
8.4%
|
|
Office buildings
|
-6.1%
|
9.8%
|
|
Retail
|
-3.1%
|
11.8%
|
|
|
||
|
Institutional
|
-3.4%
|
4.4%
|
|
Religious
|
-10%
|
6.3%
|
|
Education
|
-5.2%
|
2.6%
|
|
Public safety
|
-2.5%
|
0.9%
|
|
Amusement / recreation
|
-0.3%
|
5.9%
|
|
Healthcare facilities
|
1.8%
|
7.1%
|
